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  #1376  
Old December 28, 2020, 07:48 PM
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NIO is frustrating for me lately. Bought it at 29. It seems to be stuck in the forties. I’ve been vested in RIOT for Bitcoin miners and I’m trying to get a long term forecast for it. Any chance for it to be in the 30s by the end of the year?
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  #1377  
Old December 28, 2020, 08:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonoy
NIO is frustrating for me lately. Bought it at 29. It seems to be stuck in the forties. I’ve been vested in RIOT for Bitcoin miners and I’m trying to get a long term forecast for it. Any chance for it to be in the 30s by the end of the year?
Do you mean 2021 year end or 2020? Since you're interested in long term forecast I'm guessing it's 2021. I'm mostly long stocks of high growth companies that I'm passionate about. In the crypto mining space that's Hive Blockchain for me. I don't like RIOT as a company but for lack of better alternatives in the space I've owned it since $6. They used to be a biotech company and their business failed but they struck gold after switching to bitcoin mining. After their stocks gained considerably they issued so many shares they almost quadrupled the float. This is a huge red flag and I'm surprised it didn't take a much bigger hit. The price of their stock is directly correlated to the price of bitcoin and If they don't keep issuing new shares at the current rate $30 is achievable in 2021.
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Last edited by zman; December 29, 2020 at 05:55 AM.. Reason: fixed the years 2020 and 2021
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  #1378  
Old December 28, 2020, 10:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonoy
NIO is frustrating for me lately. Bought it at 29. It seems to be stuck in the forties.
Why is this frustrating to you? If this frustrated you u have a lot of pain coming in future that u will come before u can blink.

U are up 33 percent on a chinese (possibility of questionable data ) stock that is trading at pretty high premium. The consolidation is a good thing. Vertical rise is dangerous . This is not normal ...I think U experienced some possibly bubble movement and getting used to it thinking this is the norm.

Trust me - u will get hurt.

Think in terms of smaller gain . 20 percent over a year not a day. If u want u can trade options ..I am assuming the fruatratin coming from soon to be expired out of the money call ???

This is just experience talking ... U too will learn give it enough time lol. Frustrating on 33 percent gain in few months LOL.

Greed!!!
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  #1379  
Old December 28, 2020, 10:57 PM
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Btw I sold nio at 54 and Li at 46 . Cuz I am not greedy .. it worked out .
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  #1380  
Old December 29, 2020, 11:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
Why is this frustrating to you? If this frustrated you u have a lot of pain coming in future that u will come before u can blink.

U are up 33 percent on a chinese (possibility of questionable data ) stock that is trading at pretty high premium. The consolidation is a good thing. Vertical rise is dangerous . This is not normal ...I think U experienced some possibly bubble movement and getting used to it thinking this is the norm.

Trust me - u will get hurt.

Think in terms of smaller gain . 20 percent over a year not a day. If u want u can trade options ..I am assuming the fruatratin coming from soon to be expired out of the money call ???

This is just experience talking ... U too will learn give it enough time lol. Frustrating on 33 percent gain in few months LOL.

Greed!!!
It definitely is greed. But I’m not an idiot to think that it will keep climbing up everyday. I think part of it stems from the fact that I’ve joined in late this year when it comes to investing. I was on mutual funds prior to this for the last 3 years where I was making meagre 4% return. Compare that with this year where I’ve joined in since august and I’m about 47% up so far for the year. My philosophy so far is to buy growth stocks and hold for long term and then generate income from selling weekly covered calls.

I was just hoping nio cross 50 for the year to end on a high. I still think there’s room for it to grow. I feel $60 is conservative and $100 for extreme bull case. In any case, the volatility allows me to sell covered call of about 1.5% of the capital invested on a weekly basis. Atleast that is the number I’ve been churning out for the last couple of month. If this trend continues then 2021 could be a good year.
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  #1381  
Old December 29, 2020, 11:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zman
Do you mean 2021 year end or 2020? Since you're interested in long term forecast I'm guessing it's 2021. I'm mostly long stocks of high growth companies that I'm passionate about. In the crypto mining space that's Hive Blockchain for me. I don't like RIOT as a company but for lack of better alternatives in the space I've owned it since $6. They used to be a biotech company and their business failed but they struck gold after switching to bitcoin mining. After their stocks gained considerably they issued so many shares they almost quadrupled the float. This is a huge red flag and I'm surprised it didn't take a much bigger hit. The price of their stock is directly correlated to the price of bitcoin and If they don't keep issuing new shares at the current rate $30 is achievable in 2021.
Thanks for the analysis.

I did see their history of offering and was concerned. But that’s sort of common with all these companies(MARA, hvbtf). In fact, most of these new growth stock are taking advantage of these rapid price growth.

It’s great to see that you are also eyeballing $30. I had similar number and this further confirms me to stick with them for the year. I’ve got about 15% stake with them. What made me choose riot over others including Mara and hive was the fact that I’m allowed to sell weekly covered calls. With riot I’m earning about 2% from covered calls based on the capital invested. Hive doesn’t let me do that.
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  #1382  
Old December 29, 2020, 12:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonoy
. I was on mutual funds prior to this for the last 3 years where I was making meagre 4% return. Compare that with this year where I’ve joined in since august and I’m about 47% up so far for the year. My philosophy so far is to buy growth stocks and hold for long term and then generate income from selling weekly covered calls.

I was just hoping nio cross 50 for the year to end on a high. I still think there’s room for it to grow. I feel $60 is conservative and $100 for extreme bull case.
Few points ..take it however u want .

- mutual fund u chose was a poor one to yield that over past 3 years
- 2020 is somewhat of an outlier in market in terms of the rapidity in which things happened - meaning u won't be able to replicate ur returns year over year. If u can let me know I will follow what u do.
- If u are bull on nio (which personally I think is a good choice ) your arbitrary price target is irrelevant . You hold long term . Sell calls at a lower strike price if u want higher premium. Frustrations is an emotion and in ur case it is unreasonable I think.

I am very edgy lately but still fighting my inner urge to do ... Buying solid growth companies and leaving **** alone just works.

Look at Snapchat it is actually gonna be 80 dollars company ... As randomly predicted by our valuation investor with zero dollars in market. It traded 5 dollars in dec 2018. I encouraged him to buy that time ... He was too scared (emotion ). Lmao. Sorry I just love poking him ... And find his posts hilarious 😂😂. Missed out on potentially thousands of dollars in fear of losing few hundreds.
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  #1383  
Old December 29, 2020, 03:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonoy
Thanks for the analysis.

I did see their history of offering and was concerned. But that’s sort of common with all these companies(MARA, hvbtf). In fact, most of these new growth stock are taking advantage of these rapid price growth.

It’s great to see that you are also eyeballing $30. I had similar number and this further confirms me to stick with them for the year. I’ve got about 15% stake with them. What made me choose riot over others including Mara and hive was the fact that I’m allowed to sell weekly covered calls. With riot I’m earning about 2% from covered calls based on the capital invested. Hive doesn’t let me do that.
I'm not much into selling covered calls but if that's what you prefer you should consider selling monthly calls instead of weekly's. You have to do it less frequently and you don't realize it but the bid to ask spread is costing you 10-20% compared to monthly's due to lack of liquidity. Monthly calls have much better liquidity.
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  #1384  
Old December 29, 2020, 03:13 PM
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iDumb is correct about the market. 2020 was a total anomaly. This kind of market action doesn't happen once in a decade - last time it happened was in 2007. If we're lucky it may continue for few more months but after that it'll be back to business as usual. I'm preparing mentally to rotate back into less risky stocks in the upcoming months.
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  #1385  
Old December 29, 2020, 03:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zman
I'm not much into selling covered calls but if that's what you prefer you should consider selling monthly calls instead of weekly's. You have to do it less frequently and you don't realize it but the bid to ask spread is costing you 10-20% compared to monthly's due to lack of liquidity. Monthly calls have much better liquidity.
Didnt realize about the spread cost. I’ve usually put the price limit and it usually works in my favour. But I am getting killed with commission fee. Canada sucks when it comes to brokerage account.
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  #1386  
Old December 29, 2020, 03:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zman
iDumb is correct about the market. 2020 was a total anomaly. This kind of market action doesn't happen once in a decade - last time it happened was in 2007. If we're lucky it may continue for few more months but after that it'll be back to business as usual. I'm preparing mentally to rotate back into less risky stocks in the upcoming months.
What are your recommendations for the year ahead for good growth stocks for 2021 and 2022. I was looking at Tsla, sq, pltr, nio, nvda. If you had to choose a safe option, what would you choose?
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  #1387  
Old December 29, 2020, 03:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
Few points ..take it however u want .

- mutual fund u chose was a poor one to yield that over past 3 years
- 2020 is somewhat of an outlier in market in terms of the rapidity in which things happened - meaning u won't be able to replicate ur returns year over year. If u can let me know I will follow what u do.
- If u are bull on nio (which personally I think is a good choice ) your arbitrary price target is irrelevant . You hold long term . Sell calls at a lower strike price if u want higher premium. Frustrations is an emotion and in ur case it is unreasonable I think.

I am very edgy lately but still fighting my inner urge to do ... Buying solid growth companies and leaving **** alone just works.

Look at Snapchat it is actually gonna be 80 dollars company ... As randomly predicted by our valuation investor with zero dollars in market. It traded 5 dollars in dec 2018. I encouraged him to buy that time ... He was too scared (emotion ). Lmao. Sorry I just love poking him ... And find his posts hilarious 😂😂. Missed out on potentially thousands of dollars in fear of losing few hundreds.

Good advice. I had a hunch 2020 was a different year. But I’d rather be up on my first year than be down by a lot. Having said that I think science and tech sector is usually a good sector to be invested in based on the last 10-15 year performance. I feel as long as I keep up to date with the latest trends and do my due diligence I won’t be doing too bad. Plus I love the infor you and Zman have been sharing lately. I can’t thank you both for your feedbacks.
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  #1388  
Old December 29, 2020, 04:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonoy
I was looking at Tsla, sq, pltr, nio, nvda. If you had to choose a safe option, what would you choose?
my goal for next year is that I am gonna try to accumulate airbnb after their lock up period ends and hopefully the stock price come down to more reasonable level..

I am expecting even before summer covid vaccination will be available for most ppl (i already have access), and the second half of 2021 will be all about pent up demand for travel and hospitality. ABNB is unique and has no competition - (only hurdle local laws), has an awesome CEO, is a household name. Just a screaming buy for the type of company I get interested in. But the price is SO SO HIGH.

So I will do what I typically do.. watch it .. wait and when it goes down - grab it by the ....
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  #1389  
Old December 29, 2020, 04:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonoy
What are your recommendations for the year ahead for good growth stocks for 2021 and 2022. I was looking at Tsla, sq, pltr, nio, nvda. If you had to choose a safe option, what would you choose?
This is very subjective and depends on ones appetite for risk. To me stocks like Apple, Amazon, AMD, NVDA, SQ, CRWD, CRM aren't very risky. After the recent pullback I started adding BABA. Can't see these stocks pulling back more than 20-30% in the event of a correction. If they do they'll bounce back. I'll also put some money into sectors that would benefit from the vaccine, such as airlines, entertainment and hospitality. I'll still have some risky allocation but they need rebalancing. Crypto was 7-8% of my portfolio, now it's ballooned to 20%+. Same goes for my crypto miner holdings and cannabis stocks.
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  #1390  
Old December 29, 2020, 05:34 PM
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So your crypto, crypto miner and cannibis stocks comprise of 40% of your portfolio? I guess warren buffet said something like if you know what you are doing you don't need diversification.

you guys have strong balls.. I am too weak.
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  #1391  
Old December 29, 2020, 06:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
So your crypto, crypto miner and cannibis stocks comprise of 40% of your portfolio? I guess warren buffet said something like if you know what you are doing you don't need diversification.

you guys have strong balls.. I am too weak.
I'm sure you're still beating everyone with your consistency. I've been waiting for a correction since Jan 2018. Aside from my SEP and 401K contributions I was mostly on the sidelines for more than 2 years. So I had pent up appetite for risk . Also the crypto gains are subject to high taxation which is something you don't have to worry about with most of your investments being in retirement funds.
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  #1392  
Old December 30, 2020, 01:06 PM
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I made the mistake of not putting enough to bitcoin. The thought prodcess of FOMO was correct but the cautious aggressiveness was lacking. It was also partly due to restrictions the brokerarge place for new accounts where you can't buy or transfer over certain amount.

Regardless I have only half bitcoin. I had a goal of acquiring about 5, minimum 2 and just let it sit. I f*** the cryptocurrency play. And the worse part of it is I followed bitcoin long before this became mainstream (like when it was only 300 usd per coin) as I was watching it as a potential threat to credit cards... (but when I realized that's not gonna happen - just ignored it but the coin turned into a different beast of storage value that I would have never thought of). that's why better not to watch too much.

anyways - the amount of my btc holding frustrates me
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  #1393  
Old January 1, 2021, 03:41 AM
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Happy new year to all of you still in the forum reading this. New year is always exciting because u get to contribute more to your roth. So guys don't forget to contribute to your roth as early as possible for 2021.

6k usd limit . So backdoor roth if ur income too high to contribute directly .
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  #1394  
Old January 1, 2021, 08:38 AM
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Happy New year to you idumb...and everyone else
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  #1395  
Old January 1, 2021, 01:38 PM
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I know this thread is primarily for stocks, but anyone dabble here in Amazon/Kindle sales? Out of my 24 books, only one sells. I am planning to dump some money in ads to boost it. Basically investing in myself...Any tips or suggestions welcome. I wonder how similar is investing in amazon ads similar to stocks...
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  #1396  
Old January 1, 2021, 01:47 PM
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What the hell is this #ripple thing trending On Twetter?
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  #1397  
Old January 1, 2021, 04:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
my goal for next year is that I am gonna try to accumulate airbnb after their lock up period ends and hopefully the stock price come down to more reasonable level..

I am expecting even before summer covid vaccination will be available for most ppl (i already have access), and the second half of 2021 will be all about pent up demand for travel and hospitality. ABNB is unique and has no competition - (only hurdle local laws), has an awesome CEO, is a household name. Just a screaming buy for the type of company I get interested in. But the price is SO SO HIGH.

So I will do what I typically do.. watch it .. wait and when it goes down - grab it by the ....
What would you consider low enough to buy Airbnb? This is definitely one to consider keep adding at every chance. I’m thinking maybe if it comes down to 100 range, I’d consider adding.

I regret not adding Apple when it was below 110 recently. You can’t go wrong with Apple, specially if you are adding in your retirement account. Watch some of the big defense stock, I don’t know anything but my gut feeling is maybe if Dems can take the senate with GA elections, there might be concern about less defense spending and those might see some pull back.

I’m taking a chance on one airline stock to recover after COVID, ERJ. This is a Brazilian plane manufacturing company, boeing was in the process of acquiring them for 4B before COVID hit.
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  #1398  
Old January 1, 2021, 07:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Ajfar
What would you consider low enough to buy Airbnb? This is definitely one to consider keep adding at every chance. I’m thinking maybe if it comes down to 100 range, I’d consider adding.
.
Timing of ABNB ipo messed it up for me. Too many eyes on it now. Precovid valuation in 2017 was at 35 billion. During covid crash of travel they had a raise cash at valuation of 18B and this is when I was praying I get freaken ABNB ..but the stunning market recovery along with ipo/SPAC bubble caused where we are now.

The company needs to have few bad quarters hopefully ..

So I would buy at any price at valuation of 2017 ... Below 40B market cap. Aggressively anything in 30B.

Basically a 50 percent hair cut needed. I will probably add small at slightly higher valuation than 40b also...

Ultimately at fully operational this is likely a 100B+ company.
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  #1399  
Old January 1, 2021, 07:25 PM
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I will look up ERJ. Even boeing wasnt a bad buy recently . I think they are finally getting a break .
The stocks went to low 100s ..I averaged down and bought some at 150 which significantly reduced my loss ...

Anyways I am pretty happy with 2020 portfolio performance . The best thing I did was not panick sell I'm the covid crash ..man that was hard to stomach even for me eventhough I was telling myself this is over reaction ...
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  #1400  
Old January 2, 2021, 12:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mufi_02
so G-man saying TSLA is a sell but idumb believes it has upward potential. Interesting!

Now let's see what happens...
Occasionally i like to read old posts of mine years back to see my thought process. I crack at my own posts. LOL. I think i used to be funnier and happier when younger and probably much smarter than i am now.

anways this post from 4 years back just hit me .. the G-man - who was short US equities. And probably still is after 10 years.
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