Shahriar Nafees Ahmed in ODIs, the Man with the REAL Auloukik Kaupal !

[Sohel]

We're all entitled to our opinions and particular angles, and we can always agree to disagree on those.

I tried to be fair by crunching numbers for quite a few players in this thread, and left the pre-Flower/Streak Zimbabwe and the associate sides out of ALL of their summeries, not just Abir's.

Why?

We're not playing second tier cricket yet, and therefore I wanted to make a QUALITAIVE difference here. The depleted Zimbabwe side actually suspended their test status recognizing the deficit. While Zimbabwe and Bangladesh have become increasingly even since then, their bowling is still VERY ordinary. In fact, it is somewhat safe to say we have close to a dozen if not more bowlers in the NCL and out of our national side, who can give the likes of Hondo, Mpofu, Chigumbura (his bowling) and Utseya a good run for their money and easily take their places as bowlers in any team.

Incidentally, Abir's performance against NCL bowlers was pretty ordinary. In fact, with his team Barisal boasting possibly the second best attack in the league with Sajid, Talha, Shubhashish and Suman to name a few, he had a hard time performing against lesser bowlers, some of whom would possibly make it easily into the depleted Zimbabwe side as bowlers. I don't see how his recent performance in the NCL or his last dozen or so matches can possibly justify his selection into the ODI side, when better performers at both levels regularly get comparatively more heat, and on more than one occasion, the axe.

Since I wanted to have a look at some our batsmen against test playing sides with decent bowling, and that in order to assess their quality from a particular standpoint, I left the Zimbabwe sides from 2005 out of the loop.

Not just for Abir, but FOR EVERYONE ELSE AS WELL.

Now, if that makes him "look bad" in comparison to other players who have been axed for apparently less, then the numbers more than validate the assumption underlying this thread: HE IS INDEED FORTUNATE TO STAY ON. The issue here is "fairness".

His performances, or lack there of really, have managed to make him look bad, NOT anything else IMHO.

Not only has he managed to evade the axe, but also valid criticism despite repeated failures since that mis-placed ODI vice-captaincy resulting from the type of minnow-bashing that actually misguided us to his class for the highest level of International cricket. That type of hype probably went to his head with typical results.

Wishful Thinking = Hype = Overconfidence = Complacency = Under-performance. That goes for most of our young cricketers, NOT just Abir BTW. Sadly, they seem to be on the fag-end of the selector's wrath more than he.

Anyway, as posted in the first post of this thread, I remain optimistic about his return at some point in time, and not just as King Rooster ruling the Second Tier Roost.

Peace ...

[Sohel]

Originally Posted by Protic
Yah man.. and the THING is.. we were playing ZIMBOS a lot that time..and SN was a comparatively NEW KID.. He performed and performed superbly in WHATEVER matches he was given.. ZIMBOS! .. And thats wat really matters.. So i wudnt call him LUCKY for scoring his runs and 4 tons.

Agreed, because I don't think anyone called him LUCKY for his minnow-bashing heroics. His successes were consistent and often spectacular where many other performances generally ranged from mediocrity to failure.

That said, this thread is about recent performances against better quality bowling attacks from the ODI WC, staying on a team playing better quality bowling attacks and how LUCK connects the two ...

[Tigers_eye]

Sohel bhai,
Protest kortasi.

Why some have last 9 match stat and some have 14 match stat? Why? I smell something. Hatey hari bhanbho?

Taratari Moyna'r stat thik koren. You say he is one of your favorite player. Tarpor or upor unjustice kora thik hoi nai.

[Sohel]

Originally Posted by Tigers_eye
Sohel bhai,
Protest kortasi.

Why some have last 9 match stat and some have 14 match stat? Why? I smell something. Hatey hari bhanbho?

Taratari Moyna'r stat thik koren. You say he is one of your favorite player. Tarpor or upor unjustice kora thik hoi nai.

Mijan,

I excluded all of the depleted Zimbabwe and minnow performances. Therefore, some players who haven't played enough, meaning at least 20 matches against good, test playing sides ended up with less than 10 matches in the latter half of their performance appraisals.

The idea was to show recent performances compared to the start. In some cases, I broke down the entire career to demonstrate performance cycles.

Some ended up with more, simply because I wanted to show more of the recent performances after showing the first 10 at the start of their ODI career. Since I showed Abir's last 13, I felt it only fair to show similar 10+ performances when possible, amongst active players still in the national loop, someone like Ash for example.

Moyna, my Magura Miandad is back Inshallah ! The next match will round that number up to 20 against the type of sides I wanted to emphasize.

I hope this clarifies the matter for you a bit. Sorry about the confusion bro.

Peace ...

[Tigers_eye]

Originally Posted by Sohel NR
Mijan,
....
I hope this clarifies the matter for you a bit. Sorry about the confusion bro.

Peace ...

thik asey jukti manlam ebar amar jukti shunen.

This thread has two comparisons. One player vs player, two player's past and present.

Moyna (Shakib): (against non-minnows) Last 15 match: Highest score 57*
API: 18.4
AC: 16.9
THREE 50's
Double digit scores (57*, 52, 50, 25, 25, 15, 15, 10), single digit scores (9, 6, 6, 5, 2, 0, 0)

Moyna (Shakib): (against non-minnows) previous 4 match: Highest score 67* (He played a total of 19 innings against non-minnow teams)
API: 31
AC: 28.5
TWO 50's
Double digit scores (67*, 53), single digit scores (4, 0)

The fake Alok: (against non-minnows) Last 15 match: Highest score 28???
API: 8.4
AC: 7.53
ZERO 50's
Double digit scores (28, 19, 18, 17, 10, 10), single digit scores (5, 5, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0)

The real Alok: (against non-minnows) previous 10 match: Highest score 71
API: 36.8
AC: 37.125
THREE 50's
Double digit scores (71, 69, 61, 49, 37, 34, 26, 12), single digit scores (9, 0).

Althought 4 innings is not enough stats to judge however for the sake of comparison I will do it.
Moyna's difference: API (31 - 18.4) = 12.6
AC (28.5 - 16.9) = 11.6

Alok's difference: API (36.8 - 8.4) = 28.4
AC (37.13 - 7.53) = 29.6

This is no kopal'r likhon for Alok. His loss of form was his own downfall.

[Sohel]

Originally Posted by Tigers_eye
... This is no kopal'r likhon for Alok. His loss of form was his own downfall.

Can't argue there bro. My numbers also show that quite clearly. He didn't have a good start, then had two comparatively decent runs in a row, and finally had the run that saw him out of the team.

Did he desrve to be dropped when he was? Absolutely ! ...

I guess the point of this thread is: in light of the facts, how do we fairly decide what "loss of form" is all about and that there are different standards for Abir irrespective of "form". For example Ash seems to be under the gun a lot more intensely, and RIGHTLY SO I might add, despite having better numbers during this same period.

About my data: I simply went to the CI player profile, and went through the list of their ODI innings, excluding the depleted Zimbabwe and associate sides. In Alok's case, where I went through his whole career that way, I took 10 matches to a single increment until the last one, where we have more than 10. I also went through Ash's career that way and posted that in Asaad's thread, comparing his numbers to a certain MIchael Clarke's. "Our young guy" versus "the best young guy in the business", that sort of thing.

Abir's entire ODI career sans Zimbabwe and associates has been posted in the first post. Without those minnow sides, he has played 23 ODIs, and I've divided that in two parts of 10 and 13. The comparisons to active players still "in the loop" was based on that.

I also didn't calculate "Average" and therefore did not take any "not outs" into account. I calculated "Average Per Innings" by simply dividing the number of runs by the number of matches.

Thanks ...

[Miraz]

I am not really convinced that this AC - (Average in terms of Consistency = [runs - (HS + LS)]/(matches - 2) is a good statistical tool to judge consistency.

Too much reliance on two innings scores, (highest score and lowest score), doesn't put enough emphasize on other scores within the same time period.

[Sohel]

Originally Posted by Miraz
I am not really convinced that this AC - (Average in terms of Consistency = [runs - (HS + LS)]/(matches - 2) is a good statistical tool to judge consistency.

Too much reliance on two innings scores, (highest score and lowest score), doesn't put enough emphasize on other scores within the same time period.

I see your point. Here's mine: I followed the idea of "dispersion" over a certain period. Therefore I dropped the top and bottom scores which could have been "flukes" to arrive at a more consistent average. That way, no single "flash in the pan" or "bad day at the office" can inflate or deflate an API too much.

There are margins of error no doubt, and admittedly, AC can make someone's average look worse it perhaps is, but that's only due to real-world inconsistencies being taken into account.

Then again, in the unlikely matter of the batsman consistently having self-similar type of innings without such events, AC will be closer to API.

This is nothing new. Similar sort of scoring with particular variations are done quite extensively in Olympic events like gymnastics and diving for similar reasons, and the idea of both negatively and positively biased judges influencing the score.

This is just one way of looking at it. It is by no means the ONLY way ...

[Mahmood]

This reminds me of a Bangla proverb, "Vikhkhar chal, kara ar akara".

The way all batsmen are performing, there is no point differentiating Ash or Nafees or Sakib or anyone. The only positive they have over seniors like Bashar or Golla is their age.

Right now we are passing the worst phase since Test status,

[thebest]

Originally Posted by Miraz
I am not really convinced that this AC - (Average in terms of Consistency = [runs - (HS + LS)]/(matches - 2) is a good statistical tool to judge consistency.

Too much reliance on two innings scores, (highest score and lowest score), doesn't put enough emphasize on other scores within the same time period.

regrading the consistency index I have following observation
1. it gives too much emphasis on the two most extreme outliers i.e. highest and lowest. But the outliers would have same impact if the second highest and lowest are close that is this formula would make very big difference between two similar performer. Even making the better player worse off If sample size is small i.e. less than 30. For example,
Player A has following score
100, 0, 0, 100, 20, 25, 20, 25, 20, 25, 20, 25, 20, 25.
He has an average of 30.35 and AC of 27.28
Another player B has same score but his second highest and lowest two are 20 and 25. Thus he has the following score
100, 0, 20, 25, 20, 25, 20, 25, 20, 25, 20,25, 20, 25
Thus B’s average score is 26.3 and AC of 22.5 though is more consitent than A, but the index show A is more consistent than B. I would rather prefer Rajesh’s consistency index which give importance to all score but deflate the extreme value by considering standard deviation in the folrmula. Rajesh one is average/ SD. B’s consistency is rewarded here as he has better Consistency index of 1.12 where A has 0.99
Regarding Zimbo/ Kenya I have one question when we became superpower. I think after WC we did not win a ODI. And just remember When S Rajesh take out stat against us, we make storm out of tea cup and now we are doing that to show SN and Sakib poor while some other great. Yes SN is poor but don't forgot he is the only who have a test century against the mighty Aussi. And how many of our players can have 4 centuries in limited over match or an average over 40 against decent opposition let alone international minnows. BTW AFAIR we lost the last match and last series againest the so called minnows (Ireland and Zimbabue).
Peace

[Rifat]

Nafees should be sent back to the A team with Rahim to work on his consistency, i am feeling that he is slowly recovering... but regaining good form should happen from the A team not the national team

at times he looks really good, at times he just loses it, it is o.k. he is young, no worries, i see a great player in tha making, but it is not really necessary to include him every game because he is in the process of regaining his solid form, which will come soon inshallah

[Sohel]

Originally Posted by Mahmood
This reminds me of a Bangla proverb, "Vikhkhar chal, kara ar akara".

The way all batsmen are performing, there is no point differentiating Ash or Nafees or Sakib or anyone. The only positive they have over seniors like Bashar or Golla is their age.

Right now we are passing the worst phase since Test status,

Very true.

Sadly, we don't have too many alternatives, and when we do, they don't seem to sustain the type of positive development we'd like to see them sustain.

Our mar-mar, kat-kat type of impatience and jodi laigga jay type of conterproductive shuffles don't help much either.

Having said all that, there's no use "kicking adog when it's down", because that simply won't make him perform better. If anything, it may do irreverable damage none of us want to see. Hence the idea of active rest and recovery, and coming back stronger when that happens.

[Fazal]

The problem with us (the slectors) is: we bring off-form players too early in the national team and hope for revival of form while they are playing in the national team. Nothing wrong with SN, the player of the future. He just needed more time off the national team, but we brough him too early. We pretty much screwed up a bit Rahim;s career. Thats how we screw up players.... its not bringing them too young.... its bringing them at the wrong time... without any evidence that they fixed their problem.

[Sohel]

Originally Posted by thebest
regrading the consistency index I have following observation
1. it gives too much emphasis on the two most extreme outliers i.e. highest and lowest. But the outliers would have same impact if the second highest and lowest are close that is this formula would make very big difference between two similar performer. Even making the better player worse off If sample size is small i.e. less than 30. For example,
Player A has following score
100, 0, 0, 100, 20, 25, 20, 25, 20, 25, 20, 25, 20, 25.
He has an average of 30.35 and AC of 27.28
Another player B has same score but his second highest and lowest two are 20 and 25. Thus he has the following score
100, 0, 20, 25, 20, 25, 20, 25, 20, 25, 20,25, 20, 25
Thus B’s average score is 26.3 and AC of 22.5 though is more consitent than A, but the index show A is more consistent than B. I would rather prefer Rajesh’s consistency index which give importance to all score but deflate the extreme value by considering standard deviation in the folrmula. Rajesh one is average/ SD. B’s consistency is rewarded here as he has better Consistency index of 1.12 where A has 0.99

Excellent post and thank you for it. I see you point very clearly indeed ...

I took such a small number of matches to define a particular peiod simply because of the frequency with which we tend to shuffle players. I chose the number 10 in that light and also because I'd personally like to see a player get at least 10 matches on the trot before we appraise him either way over a fixed period of time, unless of course we're practically FORCED not to on account of his performance.

Also, there's something inherently simple about my AC that makes "ballpark" sense to me. For example, if a player scores 100-10-30-30-30-30-30-30-30-30 or 350 runs over 10 matches, his API will be 35.0. But once we drop the top and bottom scores of 100 and 10, and divide the remaining 240 by 8 (=10-2 matches with scores of 100 and 10), we get 30. Since the batsman has scored 30 many more times than 100 or 10, 8 out of 10 times to be exact, AC can tell me that he gets 30 CONSISTENTLY, not 35.

Just keeping it simple I guess.

[Miraz]

Welcome back thebest, this is why you are sorely missed at BC.

[Tigers_eye]

1) I like SN a lot. Thought he was destined to be the captain after HB. Alas his form fell I have no idea why. Off-field stuff may be?

2) I have a problem with the words "minnow bashing". Didn't the non-minnow bashers play against the minnows also? Why can't they score runs against them? I mean centuries. They are sympathetic to the minnows? What gives? Why do we need to seperate stats on minnow and non-minnows?

3) If someone is off-form he will do bad against all competition compared to an in-form player (since both plays against all opponents).

4) Mental flaws are as bad as technical flaws if not worse.

[Sohel]

Agreed.

The term "minnow bashing" is indeed harsh, since we find ourselves at the recieving end of such harshness all too often. But it is also the truth. We're takling about us and looking at our batsmen, not anyone else's, but to be fair, I did drop those teams from Michael Clarke's numbers in ASAD'S THREAD when I compared them to Ash's ...

In the case of depleted Zimbabwe, it's their bowling IMO. Batting-wise, they've become just as good if not better. Hence, I apply the term to our batting, the primary weakness or "area of opportunity" to be more PC, not necessarily our bowling.

[abu2abu]

Didn't SN's highest test scroe come against the mighty australians.

Only one innings, I know, but certainly worth mentioning. I think he has the ability to be a good test player.

I'm not so convinced by his ODI performances. Most of his ODI hundreds came against kenya b4 the world cup. In the WC itself, he was awful...

[Beamer]

Aloukik Kopal ! I think I heard that term before !

[auntu]

Sohel guru on fire!!

wow!

[Sohel]

Cough , cough.

PLEASE have him bat @ 5 against the Top 8 and let him score those 50s against the old ball and slower bowlers.

We need him to do well.

[Dhurr]

Just one question (and this is not about SN or our players):

Why was everyone in this forum up in arms when S Rajesh decided to exclude stats against Bangladesh (and other countries considered "minnows"), when we ourselves are doing something similar although Bangladesh has not crossed over to anything but minnows themselves?

I am not saying SohelNR is at fault for doing this, because I don't remember his stance during the S Rajesh days, but I clearly remember that the majority of the forum members was up in arms against S Rajesh and his practices, but we are completely OK if a similar treatment is given to other "minnows". Why?

So S Rajesh was wrong to consider us minnows (although we lose against every team consistently) but it is ok for us to consider other teams minnows because we beat them consistently? Sorry, that's just a retarded double standard.

[Timtim]

Shahriar Nafees is a class batsman. His technique is fabulous. I enjoy seeing him play the shots...even just blocks. He is one of our few international grade players who is just going through a rough phase

He just needs to work a little more on his concentration and shot selection.

[BANFAN]

A specialized opener is expected to do well as opener, Dropping him to no 5 on mercy is damaging two players, him and the guy who is suitable to play in that position. He badly needs a break. He is awfully out of form. I hope and pray that he finds his form, but national team is not the place to have practice, match after match to find his form.

Please get Zunaid or anyone suitable for that place and give him a break for his benefit.

[Dhurr]

Originally Posted by BANFAN
A specialized opener is expected to do well as opener, Dropping him to no 5 on mercy is damaging two players, him and the guy who is suitable to play in that position. He badly needs a break. He is awfully out of form. I hope and pray that he finds his form, but national team is not the place to have practice, match after match to find his form.

Please get Zunaid or anyone suitable for that place and give him a break for his benefit.

Not arguing anything else in your post, but how can someone be "awfully out of form" if he scored three 50s in a row (90*, 60, 54) less than a month ago in the last series he played, and then scored 24 (not a great innings or anything, but a substantial innings for someone who is "awfully out of form", dont you think?) just two matches ago?

90*, 60, 54, 24, 4, 0... these are his last six innings. I can buy the "minnow-basher" tag given to him by some but "awfully out of form"? Maybe you saw something I missed, but I can't agree that he is out of form, let alone "awfully out of form".