Financial News

[iDumb]

Btw those of you who added to bitcoin did a good job. btc might once again end up beating the s&p this year. If ppl are convinced this is the digital Gold why not.. Dollar will become worthless the way Fed is funding everything. World dominance of USD might end soon the way monetary policy is going and the universal accepted currency has to be something not connected to a country.

Gold/precious metals, btc/cryptocurrency would be the obvious play.

[iDumb]

I am always pro social media app that create traction. Wanted to own tiktok for some time now when it wasn't so popular in USA but was trending in asian countries. Now finally our govt woke up and forcing sale of its US business to an American company ...

Its late but i got excited. Only to realize Microsoft will buy it.. they already have 1.6 trillion dollars valuation... with the news a spike of 4% - creates a ~60 billion dollar market cap valuation.. hahah..so in essence just the news of tiktok talk created a 60 billions dollar value....LOL (4% x 1.6 trillion)

I give up!!! I preferred it became an independent entity on its own and got valued at like 40b then i would jump in.. for potetnial incrase to 5x over next few yeaers...

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by iDumb
Any good 5G stocks? Next decade it seems like will be run by advancement in the 5g sector. Maybe more automation. For long term hold, I think this will be the sector to yield the most gain.

i think for now I will buy into big dawgs on weakness like qualcomm and NVIDIA. but is interested to any other ideas any of u have.. Also I am sure new apps is probably in the making that was not possible with 4G - which should become more clear in coming years ..

Ended up buying qualcomm 2 days later. 25% up. What a luck lol.

[tonoy]

Someone give me a quick analysis on Tesla. Would you buy it at its current price if you are sitting in on lots of cash?

[zman]

Originally Posted by tonoy
Someone give me a quick analysis on Tesla. Would you buy it at its current price if you are sitting in on lots of cash?

Based on the current stock price TSLA is extremely overvalued. In my analysis even in the best case scenario the current price cannot be justified for another 5-6 yrs. Yet Tesla is one of the leaders that will dominate the next decade like the Apples and Amazons of the world. Also the stock will undergo a 4:1 split next week before it's included in the S&P. Therefore people won't care about its valuation, they will just want to own a piece of the pie. So I think it'll keep gaining despite its extreme valuation. My suggestion is to buy 25% shares at a time instead of going all in at once. That way you won't feel the pressure of having paid too much.

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by tonoy
Someone give me a quick analysis on Tesla. Would you buy it at its current price if you are sitting in on lots of cash?

haha. we got plenty of street analysts upping their price target and future estimates daily based market actions. I had put in an order at 1300 last week. Never filled. My only reasoning was momentum and that I am missing out. Unless market crashes, I doubt tesla will crash - i mean they are justifying the price on 2025 earnings which is loong way out.

I have read analysis that it is the future apple and a trillion dollar company in future.

their value can not be compared with other car manufacturers but it has to be valued as a technology company. Their battery technology, data is miles ahead of any competitor.. if they can make commercial trucks that are far cost effective than the current diesal powered one, you can see how every company would want to replace their fleet to lets say tesla trucks.
main problem with the electric trucks were always the distance the battery take you... with tesla's battery technology they are talking about million plus miles range. then let's go one stop farther and the trucks are driverless!! This is a huge savings PER truck for a company (ie walmart)

The way our current world is heading - where u sit home and can order anything with a click of a button - everything shifting online - you can see how the back end requires more and more of these commercial vehicles to transport goods...

walmart, fedex, ups, usps , mom and pops - everybody would need a tesla truck


and then maybe not all cars have to be tesla but others car manufacturer ultimately using teslas battery tech :p

in a world like that - where everyone harness the power of sun for their transportation needs - yes tesla is a 3 trilliion dollar company.

Good luck.
--------------------------------------
But we don't live in that world now and that world has to be some years away - do u pay for that now? i would trade this now the way i trade bitcoin. Current price does not have to make sense. Sentiment and momentum also have value if that makes any sense. Tesla is an extremely popular stock - has a cult like following - like cryptocurrency cult - one should price that in .

personally I would not put most of my money in a single stock like that but i would put portion of it as part of FOMO that would not hurt me if i lost let's say half of it.

maybe some body else here who went much deeper into the company can shed more light on why else this thing keeps going up.

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by zman
Based on the current stock price TSLA is extremely overvalued. In my analysis even in the best case scenario the current price cannot be justified for another 5-6 yrs. Yet Tesla is one of the leaders that will dominate the next decade like the Apples and Amazons of the world. Also the stock will undergo a 4:1 split next week before it's included in the S&P. Therefore people won't care about its valuation, they will just want to own a piece of the pie. So I think it'll keep gaining despite its extreme valuation. My suggestion is to buy 25% shares at a time instead of going all in at once. That way you won't feel the pressure of having paid too much.

stock split causes the prices to go up only in current millennial world. the combined power of the little guys are massive.

i think its a good idea. automate tesla investment biweekly and over long term one would likely come out ahead. but that's not sexy, ppl want 300% gain in a week. leveraged Option traders make headlines...if u got money to burn - go for it. I like high volume, solid companies that also trade with such massive swings - taking gambling risk on these can pay off.

the mistakes most ppl do i think trying to have that 300% gain, they go wiht thinly traded obscure companies and ends up getting burned. that's dumb/casino gambling.

[tonoy]

Originally Posted by iDumb
haha. we got plenty of street analysts upping their price target and future estimates daily based market actions. I had put in an order at 1300 last week. Never filled. My only reasoning was momentum and that I am missing out. Unless market crashes, I doubt tesla will crash - i mean they are justifying the price on 2025 earnings which is loong way out.

I have read analysis that it is the future apple and a trillion dollar company in future.

their value can not be compared with other car manufacturers but it has to be valued as a technology company. Their battery technology, data is miles ahead of any competitor.. if they can make commercial trucks that are far cost effective than the current diesal powered one, you can see how every company would want to replace their fleet to lets say tesla trucks.
main problem with the electric trucks were always the distance the battery take you... with tesla's battery technology they are talking about million plus miles range. then let's go one stop farther and the trucks are driverless!! This is a huge savings PER truck for a company (ie walmart)

The way our current world is heading - where u sit home and can order anything with a click of a button - everything shifting online - you can see how the back end requires more and more of these commercial vehicles to transport goods...

walmart, fedex, ups, usps , mom and pops - everybody would need a tesla truck


and then maybe not all cars have to be tesla but others car manufacturer ultimately using teslas battery tech :p

in a world like that - where everyone harness the power of sun for their transportation needs - yes tesla is a 3 trilliion dollar company.

Good luck.
--------------------------------------
But we don't live in that world now and that world has to be some years away - do u pay for that now? i would trade this now the way i trade bitcoin. Current price does not have to make sense. Sentiment and momentum also have value if that makes any sense. Tesla is an extremely popular stock - has a cult like following - like cryptocurrency cult - one should price that in .

personally I would not put most of my money in a single stock like that but i would put portion of it as part of FOMO that would not hurt me if i lost let's say half of it.

maybe some body else here who went much deeper into the company can shed more light on why else this thing keeps going up.

Thank you so much for that break down. That is exactly what I was hoping to hear. I think I will finally pull the trigger on Tesla. I do see its intrinsic value. I am heavily vested in Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. With Tesla being added to my portfolio, I really am going to get screwed when the bubble pops.

[tonoy]

Originally Posted by zman
Based on the current stock price TSLA is extremely overvalued. In my analysis even in the best case scenario the current price cannot be justified for another 5-6 yrs. Yet Tesla is one of the leaders that will dominate the next decade like the Apples and Amazons of the world. Also the stock will undergo a 4:1 split next week before it's included in the S&P. Therefore people won't care about its valuation, they will just want to own a piece of the pie. So I think it'll keep gaining despite its extreme valuation. My suggestion is to buy 25% shares at a time instead of going all in at once. That way you won't feel the pressure of having paid too much.

Thanks zman. I like that plan.

[zman]

Seems like both iDumb and I have similar perspective on TSLA stocks. I can't justify paying 200+ PE for a stock in my investment portfolio unless it's SQ LOL. Yet I'm sure I won't hesitate to pay 5k+ in the future when the PE comes down. These are the key dates you want to keep an eye on if you're looking to initiate a new position in TSLA - Aug 21 (today) is the last day to buy the stock at pre split price, Aug 28 is when the 5:1 split becomes official, Sep 22 is battery day or the annual shareholder meeting. Although I'm not ready to invest in TSLA, I love it as a trader. Currently I have a position, at least half of which I intend to sell today or sometime next week before the split (whenever the price starts pulling back considerably). If stock keeps going up I'll potentially hold until Sep 22.

[iDumb]

any bad trades recently? I am getting the stocks right but messing the timing haha.

Was playing the ipo game - it seems like any ipo stock now rallies for few sessions. Bought Rocket mortgage at 24 - and ofcourse right after i bought started reversing.. closed position at 22. the stock went down to 19 but today its 31. All span of 2 weeks.

[zman]

Originally Posted by iDumb
any bad trades recently? I am getting the stocks right but messing the timing haha.

Was playing the ipo game - it seems like any ipo stock now rallies for few sessions. Bought Rocket mortgage at 24 - and ofcourse right after i bought started reversing.. closed position at 22. the stock went down to 19 but today its 31. All span of 2 weeks.

RKT worked for me but I also sold way too early - It's owned by the owner of Cleveland Cavaliers. They get good publicity as their ads are shown during NBA games. I wasn't gonna sell at a loss. They have earnings next week. Should continue to gain throughout this week.
Other stocks that took off right after I sold at a small loss or less than expected profit: FL, AAL, ZM, FSLY.
Got rid of most of my TSLA. Will look to get back in post split pullback in September.
One that got away: OSTK, been on my watch list since it was 20, currently trading at 120 and I'm still on the fence LOL

[iDumb]

NIO might have better trading swing than tesla in coming week. worth looking into. almost bought today at the opening but then whatever reason decided against it. And ofcourse when i do that it will run. other mistakes last two weeks sold some mastercard position at 315, Sold qualcom at 106 and the one that was a HUGE mistake couple of months back sold pypl at ~155.

I am actually getting tight on cash which creates a problem cuz now i have to sell positions to get to another... the recent tesla run up was missed partially because of that - i had to create money by selling some of my old Boeing share at like 60% loss.

thinking of selling apple still - but again when I do - it's gonna rallly for sure.

my current individual holdings which I don't really trade:
apple, amazon, facebook, mastercard, delta, boeng, fedex, uber, pinterest, matchgroup, disney, bitcoin.

these were bought with long term thinking... not trading. But sometimes quick runup make me realize gain.

i m waiting to buy palantir and maybe airbnb (if it crashes post ipo) .

[iDumb]

oh yeah also have target. i only have loss on boeng and uber.

[iDumb]

haha it's waay too easy to make money in this crazy unhindered market. Buy tech and u are set.

i think FB is setting up to be in the trillion dollars club .

[SportingBD]

I have no clue what is happening with the tech stocks.

Are they overvalued? if so, why most of the equity analyst recommending buy and increasing price target.

It's getting very tempting and I might make a wrong move...

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by SportingBD
I have no clue what is happening with the tech stocks.

Are they overvalued? if so, why most of the equity analyst recommending buy and increasing price target.

It's getting very tempting and I might make a wrong move...

I do not think they are over valued as a group. this pandemic caused an acceleration of online/tech growth - within months they achieved what it would have taken 5 years...

stocks that shouldn't be up aren't really going up. For ex u don't continue to see cruise ship rallying.. but u see stocks rallying that are having higher user growth, higher sales, higher profit.

Look at FB p/e ratio. it's cheap compared to even apple. And certainly msft.

I was getting bearish on FB wiht all the govt interference - but sales are there - numbers dont lie. and it will be a 1 Trillion dollars company sooner or later.

[SportingBD]

You can’t value companies with fundamentals anymore.

I would be very curious if someone can show me how they worked out the intrinsic value for any of the tech stock. I can’t make sense of the valuation.

[SportingBD]

Apple has a market value of 2trn. Last reported earnings 55bn (2019)

Earnings yield = 55,000/2,000,000 = 2.75%. Let's assume they cross 100,000 billion in 10yrs.

100,000/2,000,000 = 5% earnings yield.

If the market did not exist, would you be happy to pay the current valuation of 2trn? to earn 5% yield?

Warren Buffett bought the stock in 2016, when it was 110...
the EPS in 2019 was 11.97

Yield: 11.97/110 = 10.81%... if the market did not exist.. does buffet need to worry? absolutely not...

the above thought process does not exist in the current market, it's irreverent.
I sense we are in the gambling mode..

[zman]

Originally Posted by SportingBD
You can’t value companies with fundamentals anymore.

I would be very curious if someone can show me how they worked out the intrinsic value for any of the tech stock. I can’t make sense of the valuation.

I'm not going to get into the details of a DCF or LBO model that is generally leveraged, pun intended , to evaluate a company by investment banks. However you're being a bit dogmatic and overlooking something basic that may prevent you from taking advantage of unique opportunities. Post March 2020 we've been living in a world where unlimited money is being printed by central banks around the world. Long term treasury bond yield in Europe is pretty much negative and the US is also headed in that direction. So in order to eradicate risk you're essentially paying the bond issuer money to hold onto your cash instead of getting paid anything. In a world where cash is quickly becoming trash, isn't it better to get 2.75% than 0 or negative return? Another example, AMZN is printing money by selling products that have value. On the other hand cash is being printed at will without being pegged to anything of value. That's why many of the financial principles can't be applied to today's market until those factors are addressed one way or another. That said, although I'm still putting in new money to work, I'm getting slightly more cautious and starting to hedge a few risky positions as S&P approaches 360-380 levels.

[SportingBD]

It’s better to sleep well at night without needing to worry about the stock market fluctuations.
Yes, not everyone can be Buffet and foresee a stock that goes on to earn 15/20% + yield every year.

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by SportingBD
It’s better to sleep well at night without needing to worry about the stock market fluctuations.
Yes, not everyone can be Buffet and foresee a stock that goes on to earn 15/20% + yield every year.

Angur fol tok?

I thikn all these noob traders and tsla cult gonna take the stock to 1 trillion dollars this year hahah... it's already close to 500B hahahah

[iDumb]

anyways my gambling hat on. Just bought BIGC on market open. Up 10% in 3 mins hahaha....

And SOLD. this is too fun.

u think too much, u get attached and u lose.

[Shingara]

I am resigning from my current role tomorrow. Lot of people have been telling me against it as due to COVID, the job market is dry. But, if I continue at my current place, I will lose my higher position and will never get it back. Money is not everything.

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by Shingara
I am resigning from my current role tomorrow. Lot of people have been telling me against it as due to COVID, the job market is dry. But, if I continue at my current place, I will lose my higher position and will never get it back. Money is not everything.

I am sorry to hear that. This is why we must position ourselves in a way so that if u lose job ur lifestyle will not take hit . In an ideal world job should be because u can and u love to not because u have to. But 99 percent of ppl have some aspect of their job they won’t be happy with. That’s life.

Think about it .. a 100k a year job is only a lifetime income of 3 million dollars over 30 years and 100k is the benchmark many are content with.

What can u do to have a 3 million asset without working that long ?? U know all these ppl that make money in market have no emotional attachment to it because they got that money easy so they can make big bets and make even more and more . Whereas hardworking ppl who earned every penny will hesitate to put money in market or because a loss will be that much painful ... a year of work earning vanished in 5 trading sessions lol