Qualification Scenarios for Bangladesh

[MHRAM]

It is almost guaranteed that if we win each and every game from here we should make it to the semis.

However, winning 3 matches might NOT be enough. The reason being that we will probably be competing with NZ and Aus and that means we need NZ and Aus to lose as many matches as possible from here onwards.

Now it is important for:

1) Pakistan, West Indies and South Africa to beat New Zealand.
2) South Africa beat Australia
3) Bangladesh beat Australia . This is a very important match especially in the context that Australia are our competing neck and neck with us.

[weekyd]

If we win all our remaining games then we most probably won't have to rely on other results. Beating AUS is a tough ask but do-able. I'd love to beat IND again in WC but don't think it'll happen. If we beat AUS, AFG and PAK then we will have to rely on AUS and NZL matches. i.e they must lose to the teams we already beat or expect to beat in our remaining fixture.

We will probably eventually narrowly lose our place to NZL/AUS and think about that run out until the next WC or, for some, rest of our lives.

The next match is a do-or-die for us.

[MarufH]

Originally Posted by weekyd
If we win all our remaining games then we most probably won't have to rely on other results. Beating AUS is a tough ask but do-able. I'd love to beat IND again in WC but don't think it'll happen. If we beat AUS, AFG and PAK then we will have to rely on AUS and NZL matches. i.e they must lose to the teams we already beat or expect to beat in our remaining fixture.

We will probably eventually narrowly lose our place to NZL/AUS and think about that run out until the next WC or, for some, rest of our lives.

The next match is a do-or-die for us.

If this doesn't make BCB to take gloves away from Mushy, nothing will. Liton is so much better at keeping than him. Mushy regularly concedes 10 extra runs and misses a chance or two every other match. That's pretty much the difference in close matches.

As for path to Semi's, tomorrow's match is the most important one. If we beat Australia, we have a solid chance. If we lose to Australia, we will also lose to India.

[Night_wolf]

Tommorow will end all our calculations

[NoName]

Hows it looking now

[godzilla]

Am more scared about the IND game than AUS game tbh. We seem to choke against IND on a regular basis, even when on course to win the match.

[bolero]

Originally Posted by godzilla
Am more scared about the IND game than AUS game tbh. We seem to choke against IND on a regular basis, even when on course to win the match.

I am not confident about India middle order. Bangladesh have a good chance to win. But against Australia, it would be tough.

[anon4567]

It would be extremely difficult for us to beat India. We should target to win against Australia, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Had SA beat NZ yesterday it would have made our task a lot easier. I think at this stage it's difficult to remove any of the teams that are in the Top-4 currently, with then
exception of maybe New Zealand if they lose to Australia and England (+1 or 2 more teams).

[Night_wolf]

I think we should forget about semi and concentrate on our matches. If we beat Afg and get 2 wins out of Aus Ind and Pak, this WC campaign will still be considered a grand success considering we went into the WC ranked 7

if our wins take us to the Semi it takes us to the semi. if not then ok no problem. We were not contenders for the semi to begin with. we gave it a run is which is highly praisable

[Roey Haque]

I think every fan right now is just focused on tomorrow's match. We should treat it like a knockout game. But if you have the heart to think ahead in case of a loss, then good for you. I commend that.

I just want to chase down the Roo, because they ducked us twice. A competitive match should be good enough. Fight and entertainment is all that is needed.I never mind the narrow defeats.

[One World]

Yes, fight till the end. Don’t just give up after hitting two 4’s in

[One World]

If we lose tomorrow and win next three what are our chances to qualify?

[MHRAM]

Originally Posted by One World
If we lose tomorrow and win next three what are our chances to qualify?

Then our hope is EITHER NZ or Aus lose all their remaining matches.

[godzilla]

Both wi and pak must be cheering for us tomorrow. Us winning will keep them alive

[bolero]

Originally Posted by godzilla
Both wi and pak must be cheering for us tomorrow. Us winning will keep them alive

Most Indians want Bangladesh to win against Australia. It has nothing to do with qualification, in general.

[Habib]

Originally Posted by godzilla
Both wi and pak must be cheering for us tomorrow. Us winning will keep them alive

Maybe. But I feel we have destroyed the confidence of WI beyond repair. I don't see them coming back from that thrashing.

[Jadukor]

NZ on 9 points with games left against WI, Pak, Aus, Eng. You would expect them to win 2 games at least and finish on 13 points

England are on 8 points with games left against Sri, Aus, Ind, Nz. You would expect them to win 3 of those games and finish on 14 points

Australia are on 8 points too. With games left against Bd, eng, nz and SA. You would expect them to win 2 of those and finish on 12 points.

Indians have 7 points with 5 matches remaining. They should win all 5 and top the group with 17 points. May be drop a game against Eng and be on 15 points

So i think winning 3 games and being on 11 points will make us narrowly miss the 4th semi spot

[salin]

Originally Posted by Jadukor
NZ on 9 points with games left against WI, Pak, Aus, Eng. You would expect them to win 2 games at least and finish on 13 points

England are on 8 points with games left against Sri, Aus, Ind, Nz. You would expect them to win 3 of those games and finish on 14 points

Australia are on 8 points too. With games left against Bd, eng, nz and SA. You would expect them to win 2 of those and finish on 12 points.

Indians have 7 points with 5 matches remaining. They should win all 5 and top the group with 17 points. May be drop a game against Eng and be on 15 points

So i think winning 3 games and being on 11 points will make us narrowly miss the 4th semi spot

Nice post...

If BD win today, i dont think Australia could win 2 from remaining 3.

[Yankees]

New Zealand needed to lose tomorrow. But they are now pretty much into the semis. Our best shot is beating australia and hoping one of their matches get washed out.

[MHRAM]

^Yes needed NZ to lose yesterday but since they didn't the only hope is that we beat Australia todaybecause if we don't we have to win last 3 matches and hope NZ only win one of their last 4 matches and have NRR below us or on the flipside Aus lose all their last 3 matches but the odds aren't looking good for us should we loss today.

[Rinathq]

Too much calculation I reckon. We need to win every game. Simple as that.

[weekyd]

Originally Posted by Rinathq
Too much calculation I reckon. We need to win every game. Simple as that.

That won't still give us 100% guaranteed spot in the semi. If NZL has equal/less points and worse NRR than us, only then 13 points give us a definite slot. Otherwise, it's pray time again.

As I mentioned before, it could come to agonisingly close that people might hate on Mushy (even more) for that missed run out chance.

May be this our last chance to make a big impact on world stage. In the next WC a lot of the seniors will be MP with Biryani-Buri. It will be unfair of us to expect the new young tigers to achieve what 5 players couldn't do with 10+ years of international experience.

Request to fans: Enjoy this WC regardless because we won't have a similar expectation of our tigers for a long time.

[NoName]

Idk but I feel like England might drop a few games; they have some tough match-ups ahead with NZ, Aus and India

[Jadukor]

Originally Posted by NoName
Idk but I feel like England might drop a few games; they have some tough match-ups ahead with NZ, Aus and India

This Eng lineup is a beast. I can see them drop the game vs India but they should beat the others. Not convinced about NZ batting.

Qualification for us looks very very very difficult. Even the Pakistan game wont be easy.. you never know which pakistan turns up on the day.

[godzilla]

If we don't win against AUS today, it's pretty much bye bye for 6 teams. Rest of the games will be just for show.