Financial News

[iDumb]

This is what i wrote regarding goldman sachs recommendation list

Originally Posted by iDumb
These recommendations are only good to validate your own thinking.. I wouldn;t necessarily buy off of that list. What is their logic behind putting michael kors on upside list while putting coach on downside list?

I chose Kors and it was a mistake, i actually had a oops moment after buying it
initially there were some percentage gain then it started going down and i sold to stopped my loss ... and prices since then have gone down significantly... so it was the right decision to sell.....

You have to keep up with fashion trends for these type of stocks... not balance sheet.
.

Kors 17% down after earnings report.... Getting whick stock gonna falter in a bull market is even harder.... Goldman sachs got some poor girl who is still buying michael kors that put it on top of the list....

[G-man]

howz everyone's finances going? who's not loving this volatility and USD strength

anyone watch the big short?

[iDumb]

No body cares about your 2 dollars trade .... you obviously missed the big play which was short oil ..which if u go back I been saying .....

You actually provide no value to this thread if I am to be honest and blatant .... and this is your job/trade ....

[G-man]

Originally Posted by iDumb
No body cares about your 2 dollars trade .... you obviously missed the big play which was short oil ..which if u go back I been saying .....

You actually provide no value to this thread if I am to be honest and blatant .... and this is your job/trade ....

wow nothing has changed. You're still the same brainless hole in the *** kinda guy.

Playing bearish oil is a trade on deflation, i.e. yield curve flattening- which can also be played by being bullish USD. Track the USD against any currency in the world, and you will see how much i'm right. it was more efficiently to play bullish USD because the instruments are readily available, more risk efficient.

But you just piss me off to tap into my intelligence. so there's my scraps for you to pick on and ponder over.

you're not as dumb as you come across, you just have no value for self respect.

[G-man]

Btw can you show me where you were bearish oil before June 2014. That's when the trend started, so after that, you're just a hindsighy genious. I was making USD trades way before then, so if anything.. I cashed in.

[Navo]

Would be interested to hear iDumb and G-man's thoughts on this:

Robi (Axiata Group Berhad) and Airtel (Bharti Airtel Limited) signed a merger agreement yesterday. Axiata's share prices have dropped to its lowest point (by -8.5%) (http://axiata.com/investor/share-price/) since the intention to merge was announced on 9 September 2015 and the same has happened for Airtel (-2.95%). This is even before the BTRC approved their application to merge. (It may take a while longer as apparently they have outstanding tax payments and there are potentially some competition issues, given that Robi will become the second largest telecom company in Bangladesh after it is fully implemented)

It's expected that stock prices will fluctuate during mergers - they're seismic events - but is this normal? Or do we have to wait and see if they rebound in the coming days and weeks?

[mufi_02]

If I am not wrong, Robi is a subsidiary of Axiata. You have to see how Robi is consolidated under Axiata. But the merger of Robi and Airtel would not affect the parent company (Axiata) so much and account for such a steep drop in stock price.

Also, the drop is mostly due to macro issues. Global stocks are significantly down for the last few months and some markets have entered correction territory. So the drop has less to do with company or industry specific issues but more to do with market issues. To prove that, more technically, you have to look at Axiata's and Airtel's beta. Simply put, a beta of 0 means the stock has no correlation with the market and a beta of 1 means it moves exactly like the market.

[Navo]

Originally Posted by mufi_02
If I am not wrong, Robi is a subsidiary of Axiata. You have to see how Robi is consolidated under Axiata. But the merger of Robi and Airtel would not affect the parent company (Axiata) so much and account for such a steep drop in stock price.

Also, the drop is mostly due to macro issues. Global stocks are significantly down for the last few months and some markets have entered correction territory. So the drop has less to do with company or industry specific issues but more to do with market issues. To prove that, more technically, you have to look at Axiata's and Airtel's beta. Simply put, a beta of 0 means the stock has no correlation with the market and a beta of 1 means it moves exactly like the market.

Thank you for that insight. Yes, you're right, Robi is a subsidiary (and local brand) of Axiata. Yesterday, I was curious whether the signing of such a merger deal would affect the two parties' share prices and it was interesting to note that on that very date both of them suffered a sharp drop in value. For Axiata, its share price plunged to its lowest point in months.

Granted, I may be confusing causation and correlation here. Maybe the market was having a particularly torrid time yesterday. (Axiata's beta is 0.98 and Airtel's is 0.90)

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by Navo

It's expected that stock prices will fluctuate during mergers - they're seismic events - but is this normal? Or do we have to wait and see if they rebound in the coming days and weeks?

I can't comment on companies I have no idea about but mufi is probably partially right that recent global selling may have something to do with it. But then why one company lost far more than other being same telecommunication sector in the same span? who is buying whom?

But regarding your above statement, why would stock price fluctuate during mergers? The way you have to vision a stock is that the current price always try to predict a future event. If merger/acquisition is on cards, no one will wait for a signed documents to purchase/dump stocks they will do that on simple news/speculation..

Then if nothing happens it continues but news negating the merger (ie govt regulation) would cause the prices to go opposite way ... It will not "fluctuate" during mergers.

That's how I understand it. I been buying and selling and keeping up with market since age 14 that's my background....

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by G-man
Btw can you show me where you were bearish oil before June 2014.
.

you can dig through FC.. there are multiple posts on were I have always been negative of oil's future, since crude oil was in 80s going down... there was thread I opened name it think "things i love" where i was celebrating low oil price to have discussion on oil pricing never came to fruition.. oil at that time was in 70s... i remember mentioning it should be in 40s back then..

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by Navo
Yesterday, I was curious whether the signing of such a merger deal would affect the two parties' share prices and it was interesting to note that on that very date both of them suffered a sharp drop in value.

how much percentage did it drop. It is very possible and is actually expected for big deals like this. I guess market don't like the merger so both dropped. Usually buying company drops, one being bought rises .. unless market thinks it's mutually beneficial for both.

these are basic market dynamics, nothing interesting about it.

[aklemalp]

Originally Posted by iDumb
you can dig through FC.. there are multiple posts on were I have always been negative of oil's future, since crude oil was in 80s going down... there was thread I opened name it think "things i love" where i was celebrating low oil price to have discussion on oil pricing never came to fruition.. oil at that time was in 70s... i remember mentioning it should be in 40s back then..

Ease of access:

Things I love

[Navo]

Originally Posted by iDumb
how much percentage did it drop. It is very possible and is actually expected for big deals like this. I guess market don't like the merger so both dropped. Usually buying company drops, one being bought rises .. unless market thinks it's mutually beneficial for both.

these are basic market dynamics, nothing interesting about it.

8.95% for Axiata and ~3% for Airtel, with Axiata being the acquirer. That's my reading of investor reaction to the merger as well....I am guessing the two parties thought it would be mutually beneficial given that together they'd have the 2nd largest market share in Bangladesh after Grameen Phone.

It's interesting to me as it's one of Bangladesh's biggest mergers till date. Thank you and Mufi for responding, you're right, if anything, the response should have been more dramatic on 9 september 2015 when the merger was first announced. I've started getting into company law recently so I'm trying to learn

[mufi_02]

^As idumb said, during M&A, usually the acquirers stock falls and the one being acquired rises. So if Axiata is the acquirer then its drop is usual but Airtel's drop is not.

I think it has more to do with the recent global selling off. You found the beta of both companies to be close to 1, that means it is in almost complete sync with the market. So when the major indices of the world are down significantly, these two companies with beta of 1 will behave accordingly. Thus not surprising that both of these are trading very low compared to their recent high. A lot of large companies are trading at discount as well.

Finally, the market or the shareholders has to see the merger to be a beneficial one. Will the companies be stronger when merged or be better off as separate? Can they combine and leverage each other's expertise? There are many failed mergers with Time Warner - AOL being one of the worst one. So investors and the market needs to make the sense of it. Like, how much premium is Axiata paying for each share of Airtel?

So it is a combination of mathematical models, market sentiments, and global macro issues.

[G-man]

It's not unusual to see stocks so volatile during M&A..but I really don't have any experience in Bd equities. But I'd also say it could be following global trends right now.

[G-man]

Would anyone know if short selling is legal in Bd? What's corruption and regulations like?

[Navo]

Originally Posted by G-man
Would anyone know if short selling is legal in Bd? What's corruption and regulations like?

It is possible to short-sell with the permission of the DSE and the CSE but restrictions have been put in place to restrict short-selling, especially that of junk (Z-class) shares, under the Dhaka and Chittagong Stock Exchange Short Sale Regulations and their ancillary Guidelines. A certain margin cover has to obtained by the broker (20% of the value of the trade) and the lending agreement has to meet certain regulatory requirements. The stock exchanges have considerable discretion in not allowing short-selling too.

The Bangladesh Stock Exchange Commission has fined a number of brokers belonging to both the DSE and CSE for violating the aforementioned regulations:

BSEC warns stock exchanges of short-selling

Fine on Salta Capital Ltd.

[G-man]

Is it lengthy process to start a hedge fund type of biz in bd? In america it's quite straight forward by the looks of things. in australia it's just way too hard in terms of legals/compliance, license fees etc.

Could i register a fund in BD and operate out of sydney? anyone have any expertise?

[iDumb]

I have seen everything now... a guy with zero track record and zero knowledge about a country's market wants to open a hedge fund there ....

Bhalo ... Ppl can't wait to pour all the money in this ponzi scheme ..

[G-man]

Originally Posted by iDumb
I have seen everything now... a guy with zero track record and zero knowledge about a country's market wants to open a hedge fund there ....

Bhalo ... Ppl can't wait to pour all the money in this ponzi scheme ..

i don't want to invest in bd equities. i just need to be registered there and invest elsewhere.

And also, I don't have to live in a country or have first experience of it if i want ot invest in it. I just don't trust bd financial markets because of corruption and the like. I invest in european markets, do I live in europe?? no. am i making? yes!

[iDumb]

You are not making much from what you have shown us here so far. It's utterly disappointed given how loud you speak.

And I understood from your first post what you want to do. Regardless of where you invest, you should have a working knowledge of a market where you trying to gain investors. If Navo comes and brings you a million dollars and says he thinks Bangladesh is the next upcoming economy and will give the greatest returns - how are you gonna pursuade him otherwise to invest in your retarted fund instead? With what? Your stellar track record -which is ZERO or with your big talk (little to show for). How you are gonna convice him BD is not the place to invest if you have no knowledge of it?

Don't expose yourself further here....

[G-man]

lol i showed you my returns last year, and since then they have multiplied. so get lost calling my fund names and putting it down. I have made money when the market has gone sideways. so once again, get the F out.

I don't see you producing any returns? you are the one talking about i said this i said that, but no evidence how how much u made/lost. probably lost. and you're ashmed.

If Navo wants to give me a mill, he will give me all of it, because i am that good. If navo wants to know i will tell him myself. but not to u. because you are a hole in the A$%.

You want my sales pitch and want to see my returns again huh? how about you sit on your finger and rotate.

[iDumb]

I have no clue where you get that BIG MOUTH from. You username is a sham. It should stand for Gordov not money...

I am pretty sure you carry morning coffee for the fund managers in your company. You know how I know? Cuz you showed us your account thinking everyone in this site are poor morons and will be so impressed....

Like I said keep talking and keep getting exposed...

Look at the way you talk.. you have ZERO credibility.. no one will ever invest in you except your mom.

[G-man]

what i showed you was one trade. unfortunately, that platform doesn't give me an equity curve, but P/L trend over a period sorted by trade. there are other limitations of reporting, so i can't show you what i would like to in order for you to shut your mouth.

i don't have to prove anything to you. keep mouthing

[Navo]

Guys, thank you for shedding light on the question I had but please rein in the bickering and vitriol.