[ToBeFair]

Democrats have initiated impeachment inquiry on Donald Trump because he apparently asked for dirt on Joe Biden from the president of Ukraine over a phone conversation.

Let me make an easy prediction: this is a fight from which Trump will come out with a big, beautiful, TREMENDOUS WIN, and emboldened to the hilt to prevail in his reelection. Here are few reasons:

1. Technically Trump asking the Ukrainian president to investigate Biden's son is illegal, but 'technicality' is a complicated thing to sell to public. To win in politics, you MUST keep it simple. Biden and his son's brazen corruption is very easy to understand, and thus in public's eye, Biden's corruption will seem more obvious quid pro quo and more corrupt than that of Trump's seeking of foreign help to boost his reelection chances. Trump is winning here as a salesman. By bringing Biden corruption issue at the front and center, he is reselling Clinton Foundation repackaged. Every time he hits with it, the attack will land on Biden and rebrand him and the whole Democratic Party as corrupt.

2. If Democrats really wanted to impeach Trump, they should have chosen a subject easy to sell. Millions of dollars are funneled to Trump properties and yet Congress is silent on emoluments clause. But democrats are corrupt too, and thus they chose a technical issue. Impeachment is thus coming across as more of looking the other way/protecting Biden over reprimanding POTUS, serving intended messaging win for Trump!

3. People focus on corruption, not on how you unearth it. DNC last time tried to play down its internal corruption by highlighting the criminality of their server hacking, but nobody bought this line of argument. Similarly, even though illegal, people won't see Trump asking foreign help as illegal, but will rather focus on Biden's corruption.

4. Another reason why people won’t by this technicality argument is because presidents are regularly given pass on more egregious/heinous crimes. Washington was OK when Obama destroyed Libya. Washington is OK with Trump’s many horrible policies. But suddenly they are having a nervous breakdown because Trump asked for dirt on Biden. People can see through this hypocrisy.

5. People are already saturated with scandal fatigue from RussiaGate. If Democrats think that they force feed another lame RussiaGate aka Ukrainegate and score political victory, they are in for a massive rude awakening. If history is any indication, Bill Clinton's impeachment only increased his popularity. Same will happen with Trump. It will only make his base more determined, and the substance-less oxygen sucking scandal fatigue 2.0 may even turn some independent/Obama voters to Trump voters.

6. From the very beginning, a Trump technique has been projecting him as a perpetual victim - who did not receive a fair chance from Democrats to govern. Ukrainegate will only bolster this image.

7. As the Commander in Troll, Trump always wants conflict because conflict creates constant press attention that Donald J. Troll always craves. Press attention is what made Trump POTUS in the first place, and it may very well give him another term.

8. When the impeachment inquiry is complete, what may happen?

a. House does not hold a vote on impeachment at all
b. House votes but does not have the vote to forward it to senate
c. House votes and forwards impeachment to senate for adjudication
d. Senate does not convict Trump because they do not have 60 votes

Scenario a and b means OUTRIGHT VICTORY for Trump. It will further damage the image of Democrats. Scenario c and d means TOTAL EXONERATION for Trump because let alone flipping 20 republican votes, Democrats probably won’t even be able hold their own house because of red state/blue dog democrats.

It does not matter who is holding the office, unless there is clear and overwhelming bipartisan support, impeachment is a mistake because it costs HUGE political capital. And here we have an impeachment fight where Trump is guaranteed a WIN from the very beginning. The end of it may unleash a demonic force in Trump and in his base that even Bernie won’t be able to resist and win against.

America in on track to lose.